Soccer Betting Advice

Soccer Betting Advice - Sample Message

The below is a copy of a past email as sent to clients in Dec 2008.

As it happens this was a good day with all bets winning.

Obviously one can not expect a positive result every single weekend.

This service is about identifying value and producing a profit over a longer period such as a year.

Use the sample message below however as a guide to the style and content of what you will receive as a client. You can see that the advised bets are clear cut and easy to understand etc.

Soccer Betting Advice from The Oracle - 24th Dec 2008

2pts Over 2.5 goals between Man City and Hull in the Premier league, 9/10 Ladbrokes or 22/25 Centrebet or 7/8 B365 (Friday 26th December 3pm ko)

The goal average for Premiership games currently stands at just under 2.6 goals per game. Of the 178 fixtures completed so far this season, 96 have featured three goals or more (54% = 5/6) and 82 have featured two goals or less (46% = just over 6/5). So for an average premier league fixture with an 8% margin built in, you would expect most bookies to go 8/11 overs and evens unders. Man City and Hull games have the highest goal averages in the division. Both sides are averaging 3.2 goals per game which is way above the league average. Both sides also have identical over/under splits so far this season too, with 13 out of 18 of both teams games featuring three goals or more (72% = 2/5). Hull's home average is exactly the same as their away average whilst City's home average is just marginally higher than their away average. Hull have scored in every away game this season, including two at Highbury, two at Anfield and three at Old Trafford. They have kept just three clean sheets in the league so far. Whilst continuing to concede regularly, Man City have not been scoring as many over the last couple of weeks. However, this has coincided with an injury to top scorer Robinho and he has returned to training this week and is expected to start against Hull. Hull will also be forced into a change at the back as regular left back Sam Ricketts is suspended. City and Hull met just six weeks ago at the KC stadium in a fixture that finished 2-2 and everything points to more goals on boxing day. City will be desperate for the win after a poor run whilst Hull will fancy their chances of taking all three points themselves. I expect an open game with at least three goals. Given the stats, I can't see how any bookmaker could offer bigger than 4/6 for over 2.5 goals here. It has been priced up as if it was a game between two teams with normal goal averages, yet these two have been the most entertaining teams to follow so far. A solid two point bet in my opinion.

Minimum price to take - 8/11

1pt double, Over 2.5 goals between Bristol Rovers and MK Dons and Under 2.5 goals between Yeovil and Cheltenham in league one, 4/5 the pair with Paddypower or 5/6 and 8/11 with Skybet (Friday 26th December 1pm and 3pm kos)

League one's goal average is currently 2.9 goals per game. Bristol Rovers home games are averaging 3.6 goals per game whilst Mk Dons away games are averaging 3.5 goals per game, so both sides are well above the divisional average. Both sides have also been involved in a number of high scoring games so far this season. Bristol Rovers games have witnessed three goals or more 14 times out of 21 (66% = 1/2), whilst MK dons games have featured three goals or more 16 times out of 21 (76% = 3/10). Bristol Rovers have scored in all 21 games bar one this season, which is not surprising considering they have the league's top scorer in Ricky Lambert (18 goals) in their ranks. They have also conceded a lot of goals (36) and this is partly explained by long term injuries to Joe Jacobsen and Danny Coles at the back. 4/5 represents a 55% chance of three goals or more, and with Bristol Rovers games averaging three goals or more 66% of the time, and MK Dons games averaging three or more 76% of the time, this looks like a very big price.

My selection of under 2.5 goals in the Yeovil v Cheltenham game is not one based on pure stats, but more on current circumstances. Both teams are amongst the lowest scorers in the league. Yeovil were the lowest scorers in the league last season, and that includes the four relegated sides. This season they are the third lowest scorers and if you look at all their games going back to the start of last season, they average just 0.86 goals per game. Cheltenham have scored just two more than Yeovil and are the fourth lowest scorers, failing to score nine times this season. Up until recently, Cheltenham had been conceding far too many goals and I would not have had this bet one month ago. But Martin Allen has built a completely new side since taking over earlier in the season (They have used well over 30 players this season). Allen's new team is based on being solid defensively and they have now kept three clean sheets in their last four games. There have now been just five goals in the last five Cheltenham league games. With both sides struggling to score and Cheltenham now much more solid defensively, I think under 2.5 goals is a decent bet here.

Minimum prices to take - 4/6 the pair

1/2pt double, Peterborough to beat Millwall and Scunthorpe to beat Hartlepool in league one, 6/5 and 10/11 Skybet or 6/5 and 5/6 B365,Betfred and Paddypower (Friday 26th December 12pm and 3pm ko's)

I fancy both Peterborough and Scunthorpe to win on boxing day, however, I think the draw is a slight danger in the Peterborough game and am keeping stakes small as a result. Peterborough's home record is excellent with six wins and just one defeat. They have scored two goals or more in eight of their ten home games and will be keen to bounce back from a 4-0 drubbing at Leicester last time out. It ended a sixteen game unbeaten run and boss Darren Ferguson wants maximum points over the festive period to make up for it:

"It's important we get the right result at Millwall, it's a big, big game for us and the lads are fully aware of that, we have to make sure we win."

Millwall fans will be delighted to be sitting in third place at Christmas and not many people expected as much back in August. I do think they have overachieved a little however and I rate Peterborough as the better side. Millwall have the worst goal difference of any team in the top seven. I think they could be outgunned by Peterborough's front three of Mackail-Smith, Mclean and Boyd who have notched over thirty goals between them.

Scunthorpe are unbeaten in five games and sit fourth in the table. They have enough quality to go back up and should be shorter to win at home against Hartlepool. The first goal in a football match is extremely important in determining the outcome. Scunthorpe have a very good record of scoring first at home this season with seven opening goals in ten home matches. Hartlepool on the other hand have gone behind 13 times out of 20 away from home going back to the start of last season. They are far stronger at home where they have lost just twice, compared to six defeats on the road. A run of poor form cost Danny Wilson his job and star youngster James Brown being ruled out for the rest of the season was another big blow. Hartlepool will also have to do without midfielder Gary Liddle who is suspended on Friday.

Minimum prices to take - Evens and 8/11

Best Wishes

The Oracle