Tipsters On Trial – Results Summary

Below is a copy of a results summary email sent out for the various experts on Trial.

Subscribers were able to vote for their favourites.
Results of the vote are included at page bottom.

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Tipsters On Trial – The Results

It has been about a month since the “Experts” started here
with the tipping interview for the jobs of advisors here.

In this email I want to do two key things.

A – give you a brief summary of each individuals success or otherwise

B – direct you to a voting link so you can cast your personal vote on who you liked best
and who you would like to hear more from in future.

Overall I would say the past month has been interesting.

I think to be fair to the experts I should stress that they are not experienced as tipsters.
There are subtle differences between betting successfully for ones self ( or for a bookmaker boss )
and providing a service to clients.
The site as whole right now I would perhaps describe as a rough diamond.
I can see edges to be polished and your feedback will help us find more.

This trial period was not a tipping competition where they were all artificially forced
into conforming to a norm. They were given free reign to do what they thought best.
The downside of this is that is makes it hard to do a direct to three decimal comparison between them.

It is obvious that the experts have wide and varied styles.
There are many ways to skin a bookmaker cat as they say.
Overall the bookmakers were well skinned.
Had you bet every tip form every expert you would have been well ahead.

The aim of this trial was to find a tightish group of them however to serve you as future club members.

So lets look at each individual.

1 – 99Reds ( Kevin )

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/99-reds/

Kevin would describe himself as a long in the tooth punter.
He is an ex player and manager.
His betting however revolves around his personal devised team ratings.
On raw profit making Kevin came out tops.

His bets I have split into two categories.

- Standard Bets : 30 bets – 12 winners – 40% strike rate – 10 points profit to advised stakes – Profit on Turnover ( POT ) 36.9%

Then

- Trixies: 8 bets – 3 winners – 37.5% strike rate – 22 points profit assuming 1pt per line ( 4pts per bet ) – POT 69%
assuming you had bet them as a patent instead of a trixie the figures would be
- Patent: 8 bets – 3 winners – 37.5% strike rate – 25.5 points profit assuming 1pt per line ( 7pts per bet ) – POT 46%

NB some minor variation between his blog records and my spreadsheet.
You may download this at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/99reds.xls

Overall some very impressive profits.

It’s hard to pick holes in someone who made a 30 odd point profit in a month
but if being picky I would say it would be good to maintain a consistency of approach.
Also perhaps firm up the approach to staking.
Small things easily washed over with the view that he is finding his feet moving from successful self punter
to advisor.

2 – BettingLaying Club ( Phil )

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/bettinglayingclub-tips/

Phil has been a pro punter for 5 years.
This came after a work history as a bookmaker odds compiler.
A self confessed statoholic he maintains a huge record of soccer statistics.
His area of speciality are the over / under goals markets and the corners markets.

His style of betting is pretty straight forward.
Mainly one or two point singles at well known bookmakers.
His message are clear and to the point.

A solid profit was made following his advice.

24 bets – 13 winners – 54.2% strike rate – 8 points profit to advised stakes – Profit on Turnover ( POT ) 22.5%

You may download the spreadsheet at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/phil.xls

Only one tiny moan about Phil.
His site username. His bets tends to be positive bets not lays.
One new subscriber emailed in telling me he had laid a bet advised as a tip after reading the username.
Not a wise move considering Phil’s record so far :)
A re christening to a more “does what it says on the tin” username may be in order to idiot proof things.

3 – Football Stats ( Anthony )

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/football-stats/

Anthony is an ex betting shop manager.
His style is similar to Phil above in that he tends to focus on the goals and corners markets
using stats information as his base.
Again bets are pretty easy to follow straight forward bets at well known bookmakers.

His trial started badly with a string of losers but a run of winners then repaired some damage.
Not enough though to turn a profit at trial end and he made a loss.

23 bets – 10 winners – 43.5% strike rate – 5 points loss to advised stakes – Loss on Turnover ( POT ) 22.5%

You may download the spreadsheet at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/football-stats.xls

4 – Fordster

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/fordsters-tips/

An interesting character with a history of being a sports trader for a major London bookmaker,
then a short spell in accountancy and now a full time exchange trader.

For some of you used to just putting straight bets on in a betting shop you may have found some of his stuff
technically advanced. The concept of dutching etc I know was new to some of you.

Out of interest in case you missed it see a page on the site that explains dutching and provides spreadsheets to help do it.
==>  dutching calculator

His Hot Shot Score Predictor bets used this dutching technique.
He claims that in his personal betting this method turned £1k into £8k last season
and £1k into £10k the season before.
They got off to a great start here but fell away at the end to a net level position at advised stakes.
A small profit would have been made at level stakes.

Fordster had two additional methods:

A – Play Away To Lay … in effect lay bets taking on away teams.
Pretty much break even on these after 23 bets.
Well he was the right side of the line with a 0.66 point profit after exchange commission.

B – High Roller Multiple .. these are highly speculative big pay out bets.
Champagne time when one lands.
Two of them so far but two losers unfortunately.

All in all Fordster roughly broke even on the month.
He may be an interesting vote if you have an interest in learning a bit more about exchange trading.

You may download the spreadsheet at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/fordster.xls

5 – One

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/tips-from-one/

A man of few words and waffle but a lot of smilies.
His bets were systematic in nature based on ratings.
Again this was a dutching approached based on backing the draw and four different correct scores.
Out of 33 selections he had 21 winners for a strike rate of 64%
Strike rate means little however.. the key question is did he make a profit?
The answer to that is I don’t know.
There were no indications on the tips as to what odds were available.
I did email a few times asking for further info and spreadsheets but got no reply.
( that could have been a spam filter issue .. eg he may not have received my emails )

In light of no info from him I decided to try and estimate profits.
I picked a random selection of 5 matches.
I looked up historic win odds and draw odds available for those matches.
Then I used an old bookmaker shop style win odds to correct score chart to get an estimate of correct score odds.
Doing my dutching calcs I found the average return after dutching was 1.3 to a 1 pt stake for a winner.
Allowing a bit for the fact that shopping around could boost returns compared to just using one bookie
I upped that figure to 1.4 and assumed all bets were those net odds.

Using that estimate I came out with a net loss of about 4 points and a loss on turnover of about 10%.

Overall I would say I thought the idea and theory behind it all was interesting.
However I feel improvements could have been made in information presentation.
eg some clues as where and what odds were for each draw or shore line to be covered.

I think the method would be judged by most as time consuming and difficult to use.
As Homer Simpson says “If something is hard to do .. It ain’t worth doing”
That’s not a philosophy I subscribe to myself but I think I would be wanting to
see a good record of profits before taking on some arduous betting work.

A month is not a long time however and this one could come good in the long run.

You may download the spreadsheet at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/football-stats.xls

6 – Tammboy

http://www.football-bets.co.uk/blog/category/tammboy/

Tammboy has worked as an odds compiler for major bookmakers and spread betting companies.
Rather than a jack of all trades he is a specialist in the lower Scottish Leagues.
He uses a custom statistical package to aid his value analysis.

Of all experts on trial Tammboy was the tightest with his bets.
Turnover was not helped by three matches falling foul of the Scottish weather.

What we did see however was good.

6 bets 3 winners for a 50% strike rate.
4 points profit from 8 points advised stake.
Profit on Turnover 50%

His tipping style is straight forward and clear cut.
The only simple improvement perhaps may be to let you know which bookies he was taking the prices from.

It’s a short sample size I know but he made a profit and is an interesting candidate with a strong bookmaker work cv

You may download the spreadsheet at http://www.football-bets.co.uk/download/tammboy.xls

YOUR VOTES

This is you chance to have your say and help direct the future direction of our proposed club.

I have set up a very easy voting script.
30 seconds should do it.
There is no need to log in,register or any such hassles

It allows you to give each expert a mark out of 5.

Simple as that.

Did I put something extra of possible interest for you after you cast your vote?
Only one way to find out :)

Cast your votes now
Here is the link ==> NB VOTING NOW CLOSED

Votes assessed I plan to be in touch with you again with further info about the club before the weekend.

Best Wishes
Mick

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Who Got Voted In ?

Unsurprisingly 99reds with his big trial period profit topped the poll.

BettingLayingClub, Fordster and Tammboy were all well voted for and came out pretty much equal.

One and FootballStats lagged the rest.

The club will move forward from here with

99reds – the ex player manager and his ratings based bets
Tammboy – ex centrebet and ig index odds compiler with his scottish football
bettinglaying club – ex odds compiler and 5 year full time pro
fordster – major bookmaker odds trader and now full time exchange trader