One
Unlike some of the others here I am not an ex bookmaker.
My experience and past focus has always been as a punter figuring out ways
how to beat them.
English is not my first language so please forgive any language errors in my future posts. Betting however is about numbers and it is numbers and calculations which I use to attack bookmakers with.
I compile my own ratings for each league, based on the ELO ratings system (borowed from a chess player rating method with the same name).
At this time, I compile ratings only for major european leagues The Premiership, France Le Championnat, German 1e Bundesliga, Italian Seria A and the Spanish Primera. In time I would like to gather the relevant historical data and expand into additional lower leagues.
After I have my ratings calculated I input the data into a custom Excel spreadsheet. This then tells me “it’s opinion” about all matches – I mean the favourite for each match (not necessarily the same as the bookies favourite…) and a value about how strong is the favourite in it’s opinion – this value is calculated excluding the DRAW, a bit like like an Asian Handicap.
The bets I will put up here are based on a systematic approach based on my ratings and excel value calculations. I have recorded it as being high strike rate and past profitable.
I call it System D
Of course, my picks for System D are those matches having the lowest value for the strength of my favourite (again, not necessarily the same as the bookie’s favourite)
With these selections the idea to to cover a certain range of predicted correct scores.
Ideally you should obtain the best prices for each correct score bet and Dutch to create an equal profit whichever one comes up.
My historical strike rate is about 70%