Football Selections for Saturday 7th November 2009
Hi there all,
If you have seen my pre-amble, you will know that I only bet at odds that are value in the long term. The only way to beat the “books” for the normal man on the street is to bet when the odds or “value” is on your side. How do you know when you have got value though? Value does not always mean backing the outsider. You may have a team that is 2/1 on but those odds would be very good value if that team should actually be 3/1 on. Over the years I have developed a football ratings system for the Premiership, Championship, League 1 and League 2. These then are the leagues I will be using for my bets and it is my ratings that will decide where the value is.
Each weekend I will pick out 5 bets that I think gives us value. This does not mean that they will all win but over the long term if you continue to bet at value then you will end up in front. Football is very difficult to make money from because the big bookmakers are excellent at compiling the odds. They are so precise that if you look at the last 10 years you will find that if you backed every home team you would have lost 7% ROI, every away team would have lost you 8% ROI and every draw would also have lost you 8% ROI. So you can immediately see how difficult it is to make a profit without having some sort of edge. My ratings are my edge and I do hope that over the coming weeks they can do their job.
You will not find me backing at odds-0n. All my bets will be in the region of 5/4 to 5/2. So in the normal run of things, if we have 5 selections and just get 2 of them right, we will still make a small profit. Getting 3 right would give us fantastic returns, so we shall see how things work out. Normally I can find about 15 value selections on a weekend but I generally whittle this down to 5 for my actual bets. So here goes.
ALL THESE SELECTIONS ARE ONE POINT TO WIN
1 Blackburn v PORTSMOUTH (11/4 Ladbrokes) - back Portsmouth to win. They have been knocking on the door and got their first league win last weekend but they also stuffed Stoke in the Carling Cup and have had creditable away draws in the last few weeks, they are in form. Blackburn have taken heavy hammerings from the top 3 in the last month and that must take its’ toll. I know they are a different proposition at home and it is not easy to win there but at the odds Portsmouth are the value.
2 SWANSEA (8/5 Ladbrokes) v Cardiff - back Swansea to win. Normally I would not touch a game like this. A real battle of the valleys—–let’s hope they can keep the battle on the field and not the terraces. However, Swansea have not been beaten for almost 2 months, are in good form home and away and the value on offer has enticed me away from my normal instincts (fingers crossed here). Cardiff have been a little up and down lately but I am sure they will be up for this battle but I feel the Swans have got their tail up and their creativity should edge them to a win.
3 WATFORD (7/5 Various) v Preston - back Watford to win. Watford have been posting some good results along with an occasional slip whereas Preston have been posting some mediocre results with an occasional win and so I would want to be with the home side here. My ratings are suggesting it should be approx. 11/10 Watford, so I definitely feel there is some value to be had here.
4 Reading v IPSWICH (21/10 Coral) - back Ipswich to win. Don’t all shout at once, I know Ipswich have only won one league game all season but it was last week and for the last month they have been playing well without getting the results they deserve. Hopefully they have got rid of the dreaded last minute goal curse that has blighted them all season and they have got a nice gentle Irish man looking after them. Joking aside though, Reading have not won at home in the league and Ipswich are coming on strong and ready for a charge, a touch of 2/1 is high value indeed.
5 Leicester v WEST BROM (15/8 Coral) - back West Brom to win. They have been a little in and out lately but they are one of the classier sides in the division and are due to bounce back to form. Leicester have had some fantastic away performances and results but have been decidedly dodgy at home and I take the Brummies to capitalise and boing, boing their way to victory.
That is it for this weekend, 5 strong selections that each will give you value for money at least. I will be backing these selections myself, so if you feel like coming along for the ride, hop on and fasten your seat belt because you never know when we will hit turbulence.
Whatever you are doing this weekend, happy punting.
Kevin