99reds Saturday Selections

November 13, 2009 by 99reds
Filed under: 99 Reds 

Hi there all,

For those of you who tuned in last week you will know that I only bet at value odds in the Premiership, Championship, League 1 and League 2. People have been asking me why I don’t bet in the Blue Square Premier and there are 3 good reasons why I don’t.

1  I just can’t get a handle on the BSP. I have all the stats but just can’t get that division right and I don’t know why. I mean my local team York, play in the BSP and so I see quite a lot of live BSP action, more than any other league in fact and still I can’t get it right.

2  The bookmakers don’t spend as much time and effort with getting the odds right in the non league games, so you would think that there was a chance of profit there with some value odds but you would have to think again because they are crafty. Instead of spending time on the odds, what they do is make the overrounds so big in the BSP that you have no chance of overturning them. The overrounds in the BSP are bigger than in any of the divisions above them and so the chance of making a profit is that much slimmer.

3  The liquidity in the BSP is not as great as in the leagues above them, so for any big hitters out there, the opportunity for getting your money down is more limited.

It is for these reasons that I don’t generally play in the BSP. Having said that, this week there is only League 1 and 2 with league action and value is thin on the ground. Bearing in mind that I try to come up with 5 value bets every weekend, I am having to look at the BSP and possibly other avenues.

So on to this weekends selections and at last I have come up with 5, what I rate as value selections, so here goes.

1  Gillingham v Oldham  -  back Gillingham (11/8 Skybet). Ok the Gills are not pulling up any trees and are well below Oldham in the league but their home form is reasonable and they have just taken a recruit from Manchester United, in Brandy, who inspired them to beat Southend in the Cup last week. Oldham are decent on the road but have lost their last 2 home games and at the prices, Gillingham are the value.

2  Bradford v Bournemouth  -  back Bradford (13/8 Skybet). I know Bournemouth are top of the table but in my ratings I have Bradford above Bournemouth in both home and away stats. The leaders have been a little in and out lately, culminating in a 4-0 loss at home to Rochdale. I have Bradford at 6/5 in my ratings, so a touch of 13/8 with Skybet is very good value.

3  Crawley v Mansfield  -  back Crawley (7/4 Blue Square). The dreaded BSP. Mansfield are playing well recently and have climbed the table quickly under David Holdsworth. They have won their last 2 BSP away games and beat Crawley 4-0, first game of the season but Crawley have come out of a bit of a slump and are well capable at home, where they have had some notable successes and of course they have to avenge that early season loss. Mansfield also have a Cup replay on Tuesday, so I am hoping one eye will be on that and Crawley at 7/4 are the value.

4  Charlton v M.K.Dons  -  back M.K.Dons (9/4 Betfred). This was a tough decision to make. Charlton are 2nd and are at home but things have not been going too well lately, with various defeats away, though they have not yet lost at home in the league. MK do play in fits and starts and their away form is not the best, having lost 2 of their last 3, but they do get up for the big games when they need to and to keep their challenge going they need to be up for this game and I am sure they will be.

5  Accrington Stanley v Dagenham andRedbridge  -  back Dagenham and Redbridge (7/4 Coral). Dagenham are a top home side but unfortunately they are playing away. They do lie 3rd in the league and their away form has to improve if they are to maintain their challenge. Accrington are either win or bust at home, with no draws yet this season. Over the last 10 games both teams have very similar form but I feel that Dagenham need the win more and at 7/4 are the clear value.

 

So that is it for this week. A difficult week indeed but the 5 bets above do represent good value in a weekend where there is very little value around. Whatever you punt his weekend I hope you come out smiling.

Kevin

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