|
In order to maximise your long term profits, it is crucial that you
have numerous accounts with different bookmakers and always make sure
you are taking the best price.
You should have accounts with Ladbrokes, Hills, Paddy Power, Stan
James, Skybet, Blue Square, B365, Betfred, Boylesports, Sportingbet,
Bet Direct, Corals, Tote and Victor Chandler as these will be the
companies whose prices I recommend. Centrebet are an Australian based
firm who have grown quite a bit over the last few years and I also
recommend you open an account with them.
All of the above are safe and secure to bet with and all offer various
forms of free bets when you first open an account.
Most bookmakers bet to around 110% on the match odds of many European
leagues. This means that they have worked out the percentage chances
of each event occurring in any particular game and added on a 10%
profit margin. This makes it very difficult to make profit from betting
with just one bookmaker as even if they get their prices wrong, they
have to be more than 10% wrong to give you a fair chance of beating
them. Those who just use their local high street shop have virtually
no chance of long term success. However, if you have ten accounts
with ten different bookmakers, the differences in opinions between
the bookmakers on some games can erode the margin you are facing down
to practically nothing. When there is a big move for something and
certain bookmakers are slow to react the odds can then swing in the
punters favour and you can lock in a profit by backing all three outcomes
with different bookies.
We'll use a hypothetical fixture between Aston Villa and Everton
as an example with the following bookmakers offering the following
prices:
Skybet
Villa 11/10 (48%) Draw 11/5 (31%) Everton 11/5 (31%)
Ladbrokes
Villa 10/11 (52%) Draw11/5 (31%) Everton 11/4 (27%)
Betfred
Villa 4/5 (56%) Draw 12/5 (29%) Everton 3/1 (25%)
Each bookmaker is betting to 110% but if you take the best prices
for each outcome from across the three bookmakers you get:
Villa 11/10 (48%) with Skybet
Draw 12/5 (29%) with Betfred
Everton 3/1 (25%) with Betfred
These three prices only add up to 102% rather than 110% so straight
away by shopping around for the best price you have eroded 8% of the
margin. We will continue to use this hypothetical fixture as an example
and introduce a scenario where Tim Cahill, Phil Neville, Lee Carsley
and Andrew Johnson pick up a virus for Everton the day before the
game and are unable to play. Betfred and Ladbrokes pick up on this
information and both firms cut their prices to:
Villa 4/6 (60%)
Draw 13/5 (28%)
Everton 7/2 (22%)
Skybet however, are slow to pick up on this information and do not
cut their price until one hour later. Therefore, the best prices available
for that hour are:
Villa 11/10 (48%) Skybet
Draw 13/5 (28%) Betfred and Ladbrokes
Everton 7/2 (22%) Betfred and Ladbrokes
These prices add up to 98% and present punters with an opportunity
to lock in a 2% profit regardless of the result by taking the three
best prices available.
Betfair is another account EVERY serious gambler should have. They
are a betting exchange who allow you to bet against other punters
by backing or laying any outcome. Because they are not a bookmaker
there is no built in profit margin and they make their money by taking
2-5% of your winnings depending on how many loyalty points you build
up with them. The more money you put through the site the less commission
you pay. They advertise that on average their prices are 20% better
than you can get with bookmakers and therefore it is well worth the
relatively small commission charge. This is true to an extent but
slightly misleading. Generally Betfair will be the best price but
when it comes to backing a favourite the difference between Betfair
and the bookies is rarely 20%. It is generally a big enough difference
to make it worthwhile having the bet with Betfair rather than the
bookie though. Outsiders on the other hand are often a much bigger
price on Betfair than they are with the bookies. You should always
check the price on Betfair when I make a recommendation as it may
be bigger than the recommended bookmaker price.
Another useful tool for gamblers is shop coupons. These are often
printed days in advance of a fixture and the prices will still be
available in a shop even though they have been cut online. Some bookmakers
are very sly however and will accept your bet on the coupon and then
pay you at the new lower price. They are supposed to tell you if a
price is no longer available yet the poorly paid and unmotivated staff
will often not bother until it comes to paying out. Therefore I only
recommend Ladbrokes and Hills shop coupons as if you get the bet on
they will pay you at the coupon price. Messages are sometimes sent
to shops telling staff that limits have been imposed on certain teams.
Using the Villa v Everton game from before as an example, Ladbrokes
might send a message to shop staff that customers can only have a
maximum of £100 on Villa at the coupon price of 10/11 and anything
over £100 will have to be at 4/6. If you want £200 on
Villa then simply say you only want £100 and then walk down
the road to the next Ladbrokes shop and put the second £100
on there. Obviously this is much more difficult if you live in rural
areas. If there is any sort of dispute with the shop just phone up
customer services and complain. I have a friend who used to work for
Ladbrokes customer services a few years ago and apparently they have
a cupboard full of free bet vouchers to give out to anyone who has
a legitimate complaint. They are very keen to keep the customer happy
so its always worth giving them a ring.
Anyone who has had any success with their betting will know that
eventually bookies start to get upset when you start winning on a
regular basis. Bookies call these people "unprofitable customers"
and they will restrict how much money you can get on by factoring
your account down. Going back to the Villa v Everton game again, Skybet's
maximum bet per customer on the internet might be set at £1000.
An "unprofitable customer" might be factored to half of
what a regular customer can get on and might only be allowed £500.
Depending on how unprofitable you are you might be restricted to a
tenth or even less and at this stage some accounts become literally
unusable.
There's more than one way to skin a cat though and with most bookmakers
you can simply open a new account with a different credit/debit card
in your own name and carry on regardless. Some might realise its the
same account quite quickly and a few will do IP address checks to
see where you are placing the bet from and link you to other accounts
at that IP address. Your account will last longer if you change your
username too as some traders might remember the old one. It's best
to set your username to something unremarkable too, such as a set
of numbers or maybe a foreign name as it is less likely to stick in
a traders memory. If your username is "bookiebasher72" or
something along those lines, then traders are much more likely to
remember you having a bet on that dodgy non league game last week
and decide to restrict your account. Another way around bookies limits
is opening a "shadow" account in a partner/family members
name as this will be very difficult to link to your other account
unless they run an IP address check. Obviously get the permission
of your partner/family member first :)
If you do bet in reasonably large amounts the likelihood is that
you will soon start to have difficulties with some bookmakers if you
follow my selections. If you follow the instructions above though
you should be able to sidestep these problems and continue fleecing
the bookies. I would recommend using Betfair as much as possible as
they will not stop you getting on after a few big winners. If the
bookmakers price is only going to pay a couple of quid more than Betfair
after commission then it might be worth taking the marginal drop in
profit, especially if it means protecting an account that might be
on borrowed time. Use shop coupons where you can and use different
shops where possible as this will prevent them from monitoring your
business. If you have any questions about any of the above please
contact me.
Best Wishes
www.football-bets.co.uk
Ex Bookmaker Odds Compiler Reveals A Few Tricks In Our FREE
Soccer Betting Course
Home
: Join : Past
Results : Privacy
Policy : Affiliates
: Contact
|