Below is a copy of Ante Post Betting Messages sent to clients at the start of the 08 / 09 season.

Included additionally are updates on current progress. Latest update Sept 08

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This years ante post bets will be split into two parts, Premier League and Lower leagues. I have tried not to make too many recommendations as it is probably best not to tie up too much of your bank with long term bets. However, if you want to have a small interest in more markets then I have given my opinion on numerous bets thoughout the article. I am also keeping stakes relatively small as again, we dont want to tie up too much of our bank long term.

PREMIERSHIP

Arsenal:

The Gunners have lost three midfield players in Hleb, Gilberto and Flamini and only brought in Nasri, Ramsey is too young and wont play many games in my opinion. Nasri has potential but is lightweight and could take time to get to grips with the physical demands of the Premiership. Hleb was a very important player for Arsenal and although they will probably sign another midfielder in the next couple of weeks, I cant help feeling they will be weaker than last season. Eboue gets far more starts than Arsenal fans would like and they do not have enough strength in depth. I also think that Adebayor overachieved last season and cant see him getting anywhere near as many this year. As impressive as last season's tally was, six of his goals did come against Derby. Arsenal also have a very tricky run in with trips to Liverpool, Portsmouth and Man Utd as well as Chelsea at home to negotiate in their last six fixtures.

Aston Villa:

Villa have been linked with players all summer but at the time of writing the only quality players they have added are Sidwell and Friedel. Several squad players have left leaving Martin O'Neill's side looking very thin on numbers. Captain Gareth Barry will almost certainly join Liverpool which should spark some incoming transfer activity at Villa Park. At the moment I think Villa are three or four top players away from challenging for a Champions league place. The quality of player Villa need to bring command very large transfer fees and I can not see them throwing around silly money. A decent Uefa cup run is probably on the cards and unless O'Neill adds considerably to the size of his squad, it could well prove a distraction in the league. 5th place is the best they can hope for.

Blackburn:

Last season's seventh place finish was the fifth time in seven years Rovers had made the top ten but it could be the end of a Golden era for the club. The departure of Mark Hughes to Man city was a huge loss. Whilst Paul Ince's managerial career has started very brightly, he has a huge job on his hands and very little money to do it with. The trustees of the trust fund set up for the club by Jack Walker have refused to keep throwing money at a loss making business. Rovers average gates are amongst the lowest in the Premier league and the club is struggling financially. They have lost two of their best players in Friedel and Bentley and replaced them with Robinson and probably Pennant, if the rumours are to be believed. Santa Cruz is on the wish list of a number of clubs and if he goes too then Blackburn could really struggle. Paul Ince is unlikely to be given more than half of any transfer fees received and I expect Blackburn to be a lot weaker next season.

Bolton:

Broke their club transfer record to sign Elmander from Toulouse but whilst his physical stature should stand him in good stead in the Premiership, I can't see him being particularly prolific. Anelka and Diouf have departed and Bolton have few flair players to call upon. Gary Megson will look to play direct football and to continue Bolton's physical tradition. However, he was never a popular appointment and should he fail to take maximum points from opening home games against Stoke and West Brom, then the knives could be out by the time they have played Man Utd and Arsenal at the end of September. Bolton will be lucky to stay up and much will depend on who replaces Megson if Bolton start badly.

Chelsea:

Their points tally of eighty five last season was the first time in the history of English football that it hadn't been good enough to win the league. Failure in Moscow too was enough to cost Avram Grant his job. New coach Filipe Scolari has an impressive record but he has inherited an ageing squad and several want away players. Lampard and Drogba both openly courted moves away from Stamford bridge but both look set to stay one more season. Drogba will miss the start of the season through injury and with Shevchenko seemingly out of the picture, and Kalou at the Olympics, that leaves Anelka as their only forward option. Robinho is a reported target but Madrid are unlikely to sell. Chelsea undoubtedly have a squad capable of winning the league but much will depend on how quickly they gel under their new manager. The opening month with limited forward options could prove critical as Chelsea were the lowest scorers of the top four last season.

Everton:

Despite a top five finish there are dark clouds over Goodison. A new stadium saga that has been rumbling on for a number of years now threatens to disrupt the harmony at the club. Chief Executive Keith Wyness, who had been the driving force behind the project, recently resigned and the uncertainty has prevented David Moyes from been giving funds to strengthen. There were widespread rumours on Merseyside last week that Moyes had resigned but whilst these proved to be unfounded, all is clearly not well. Moyes needs four or five players if he is to cope with the extra demands of a Uefa cup run as Everton have one of the smallest squads in the league. They need Andy Johnson's protracted transfer to Fulham to go through in order to free up funds, and I'm sure one or two will be brought in, but that may not be enough. It will certainly not bridge the eleven point gap to fourth place and at this rate Everton will be lucky to qualify for Europe again next season.

Fulham:

Roy Hodgson kept Fulham up by the skin of their teeth last season. He has set about discarding a lot of dead wood over the summer and brought in some decent players. Two goalkeepers have arrived in highly rated youngster David Stockdale and experienced pro Mark Schwarzer. Zoltan Gera has been brought into the midfield whilst Andrew Johnson should complete a move from Everton by the end of the week. Jimmy Bullard's injury problems are behind him and if they can keep hold of him then they have the basis of a decent side. A top half finish is not beyond Fulham if Andrew Johnson rediscovers his scoring boots, Bobby Zamora could also do well at Craven cottage. I think they have enough quality to stay up again and a decent cup run is not beyond them.

Hull:

I'm not quite sure how the Tigers got into the Premiership, but one thing you can be sure of is that they wont be there long. Lacking any real star players Hull manager Phil Brown has a huge job on his hands and if he keeps them up it will be nothing short of a miracle. I cannot see where the goals are going to come from now that Fraizer Campbell has gone back to Man Utd. They don't have a particularly big squad either and an injury crisis could see them equalling record lows. The main positive is that they have a decent manager in Phil Brown who should get the best out of what he's got. In the last ten years fourteen out of thirty promoted teams have gone straight back down and I fully expect Hull City to join that club.

Liverpool:

Off the field uncertainty continues to overshadow Rafael Benitez's side and they are still missing that elusive "final piece in the jigsaw". Robbie Keane should link up well with Gerrard and Torres but Liverpool are still lacking in wide areas with Ryan Babel the only quality option. Pennant is likely to be shipped out and Benayoun could go too although both are no more than fringe players. The Reds have been linked with David Silva throughout the summer and if they got him then the jigsaw would be very close to being complete. However, it is unlikely as Barry looks likely to sign imminently and eat up the remainder of the transfer budget. I find Benitez's pursuit of Barry quite puzzling. Although Alonso has struggled for consistency over the last couple of seasons I think he is a better player on his day and I don't rate Barry as being worth any more than £10million. If Barry does sign then it looks like headless chicken Dirk Kuyt will continue on the right and Liverpool will continue to lack creativity in wide areas. It cost them last season as they lost less games than Man Utd but drew far too many. Injury to Gerrard or Torres for any significant period would end Liverpool's title challenge instantly. The return of Daniel Agger at the back is a major positive however.

Manchester City:

City have some decent players in their squad and Mark Hughes should be able to coax the best out of them. Ben Haim is a decent signing but I'm a little surprised that Mark Hughes forked out so much money for Jo. The Brazilian was a hit in Russia but I'm not sure how suited he will be to the Premiership. Elano, Petrov, Johnson and Richards are all good players too however and I expect some more new signings before the transfer window shuts. Fifth or sixth are realistic targets and a good cup run is not out of the question. A little patience will be required from City's Thai owner however, City are still some way off the top four.

Manchester Utd:

Christiano Ronaldo's transfer saga has overshadowed Utd's League and European cup double as well as unsettling the dressing room. I think Utd face a difficult year with or without Ronaldo as they will be the team everybody wants to beat. Even if he does stay, he is injured until October anyway and by that time Utd could be a fair way off the pace. The Champions first eight away games are all against teams who finished in the top nine last season including Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Without Ronaldo Utd could drop a lot of points in these games and his importance to them cannot be highlighted enough. Ronaldo was incredibly responsible for 39% of Man Utd's league goals and without him they quite simply would not be champions. The signing of Berbatov from Spurs could potentially soften the blow although he has proved highly temperamental in the past. The likes of Scholes and Giggs are on their last legs and Anderson and Nani will need to have big seasons if Utd are to retain their title. I will be looking to oppose them early in the season.

Middlesbrough:

Middlesbrough fans will be crying out for some excitement this season after becoming far too used to mid table mediocrity. Boro have finished between 11th and 14th eighth times in the last ten seasons but this season seems to be shaping up just the same. They have two or three good players but plenty of average ones and Alfonso Alves will need to have a good season if they are to reach the top half. Tuncay and Downing are also capable of contributing quality but it is at the other end of the pitch where Boro's problems lie. Brad Jones and Ross Turnbull will battle it out to replace Mark Schwarzer in goal but neither are very experienced. They will also have a defence in front of them that leaked fifty three goals last season. Improving on an away record that seen Middlesbrough win just three times away from home last season is another priority if European qualification is to be achieved.

Newcastle:

There were newspaper reports at the weekend of possible major investment but as it stands the Geordies are skint and have not got the funds to strengthen. Fabricio Coloccini looks set to sign, and he would be a very good addition, but there are unlikely to be too many more without new investment. Coloccini could form a good partnership with Steven Taylor and it is an area that definitely needs attention after Newcastle conceded sixty five goals last season. They have a top keeper in Shay Given and a potentially potent attack in Michael Owen and Obafemi Martins but that's about it. Newcastle have no strength in depth and could struggle badly if Michael Owen cant shake off his injury problems. I am not convinced at all about the return of Kevin Keegan as manager and it is well known that he is very limited tactically. He will try to play good attacking football which will please the locals, but I'm not sure how pleased they'll be with the messiah if they end up in a relegation battle.

Portsmouth:

FA cup winners Portsmouth have a very useful side and are capable of improving on their eighth place finish last season. Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe could form a classic little and large partnership and I can see them scoring plenty of goals. The loss of Sully Muntari is a blow but Pompey still have the creative influence of Niko Krancjar and the physical presence of Papa Diop. They have one of the best defences in the league boasting sixteen clean sheets last season and look set to add Kaboul and Nicky Shorey to their squad. The one area that needs strengthening is the wings and if Redknapp is given the money from selling Muntari then he could have quite a formidable first eleven. Fratton Park is now one of the most difficult places to go in the country and not many sides will leave with three points. Portsmouth will have to contend with European football this season and it could yet prove a distraction.

Stoke:

Like Hull, I just cant see them staying up. A small squad lacking quality and lots of players who have played in the Premiership and not been good enough such as Diao, Delap, Griffin and Pericard. Dave Kitson should prove a useful signing but he will need twenty goals if he is to keep Stoke up and I just can't see it. Stoke's direct approach is unlikely to prove effective at the top level but with plenty of height in the team they might prove dangerous from set pieces. It is a very similar outlook to Hull and both should be adding to the growing list of sides who went straight back down.

Sunderland:

Roy Keane has changed his transfer policy this summer, previously he would only sign a player if he'd played with them at Man Utd or Celtic or if they were Irish, now he only wants players who weren't good enough for Spurs. In all seriousness, Chimbonda, Tanio and Malbranque will strengthen Sunderland's squad and Diouf will add a bit of flem, sorry, I meant flair. Sunderland's main problem last season was scoring goals and Keane doesn't seem to have solved it with his signings so far. Whilst he has added a bit of creativity I cant see anyone who is going to grab fifteen plus goals. Kenwyne Jones will miss the start of the season injured and Diouf is more of a winger than a striker. The Black cats failed to score in sixteen games last year and will need to improve on that figure if they are to climb up to mid table safety.

Tottenham:

Twenty players have come and gone since Ramos took over last November as Spurs go through a transitional period. Robbie Keane has left and Berbatov could soon follow him out of White Hart Lane. If Berbatov does go then he will surely be replaced by a big name signing with Spurs linked to the likes of Etoo, Arshavin and Pavlychenko. Modric and Dos Santos look like good signings who will add creativity to the side whilst Gomes in goal will be an improvement on Paul Robinson. One concern for me about Spurs is that they might be a bit lightweight, with the likes of Bale, Modric, Dos Santos and Lennon all lacking inches. Juande Ramos likes to play open attacking football and I can see Spurs scoring lots of goals again this season, but I also think they will continue to concede a lot. Both full backs like to get forward whilst Woodgate and King have had several injury plagued seasons and back up Dawson is not a player I rate very highly. With all the changes at White Hart Lane in the last six months I think Ramos's new look side will take a little while to settle. A top six finish this season would be decent progress and another cup run is a strong possibility.

West Brom:

Boss Tony Mowbray has made some decent signings and the Baggies have by far the best chance of the promoted clubs of staying up. Scott Carson for £3million is great business and he is a far better player than given credit for. A high profile error in an England shirt has caused a huge swing in public opinion about a player who was valued at over £10million six months ago. Luke Moore is another good acquisition as is full back Mareck Cech who has Champions league experience with Porto. Mowbray is a good manager and West Brom play decent football. If they can avoid any major injury problems than they have every chance of staying up, but their fate is unlikely to be decided until very late in the season. Will fight it out with three or four established clubs and could come out on top.

West Ham:

It could be a difficult season for the Hammers with cutting the wage bill seemingly the main priority this summer. They were hampered by a number of injury problems last season and if they get everyone fit they have a half decent side. However, it is unlikely to be added to much before the season starts and Alan Curbishley is currently favourite to be the first manager axed. If they can get Dean Ashton fit then the potential for a decent season is there, but they have a shaky looking defence which does not inspire confidence. Much is expected of youngsters Freddie Sears and James Tomkins but they are still very young and probably another season away from making any serious impact. Could go either way.

Wigan:

Surprised me by staying up last season but look set to struggle again. Summer signings such as Lee Cattermole and relegated Birmingham pair Kapo and De Ridder do not inspire much confidence. They have been linked with Jimmy Bullard who would be a great signing but I cant see why he would want to go back there myself. The thirty four goals they scored last year was second only to Derby as the lowest tally and this years squad don't look capable of too many more. Emile Heskey needs a decent partner and Wigan lack the funds to bring anyone decent in. Last seasons two away victories are another part of the reason they struggled and the fact that they are backed by the smallest crowd in the Premier league doesn't help either. Another relegation dog fight is on the cards.

Summary and recommended bets:

The top four will almost certainly be the same again, the only thing that will change is the ordering. I think the winner will come from Man Utd or Chelsea, Liverpool could have a small chance if they got someone like Silva but off the field problems are likely to derail any challenge. I Cant see Arsenal challenging with the squad that they currently have and 5/4 Liverpool to finish ahead of Arsenal is tempting. I am only put off by recent history which has seen Liverpool give up completely on the league once they cannot win it to concentrate on Europe. The "best of the rest" is very difficult to predict this season. There are a host of candidates but none that I fancy strongly, Spurs, Villa, City and Pompey all have chances. At the other end of the table, Hull and Stoke look like certainties to go down with West Brom, Bolton and Wigan set to scrap it out to avoid the last place. In the top goalscorer market it is difficult to see past Torres, but he is too short at 4/1. There are too many negatives against his main challengers, Ronaldo wont reach 30 goals again, especially as he is set to miss the start of the season with injury. Adebayor overachieved last season and might have less games with the return of Eduardo. If Berbatov goes to Utd then he might have to battle it out with Tevez and Rooney for a starting place. Drogba starts the season injured as well as wanting a move. Rooney never gets anywhere near yet is always laughably short. The best policy, if you want an interest, is to pick out a bigger priced player as an each way bet. Defoe at 18/1, Ashton at 66/1 and Andy Johnson (if he goes to Fulham) at 125/1 wouldn't be the worst bets in the world.

I am going to recommend three bets from the Premiership. Two are Specials and one is for the Carling cup.

1pt Harry Redknapp to be the top English manager 13/8 Paddypower

This is basically a group match bet between all the clubs with English managers. It doesn't matter if any of them move during the season, you are betting on their team at the start of the season. As I've said above, Pompey are a decent little side who are hard to beat at home, they have a solid defence and have a promising forward partnership in Crouch and Defoe. The main reason I like this bet however, is that I really cant see the main challengers doing anything. Newcastle have no money, a small squad and a tactically naive manager. Blackburn have lost two of their best players and could also lose Santa Cruz, Hughes has gone and they have no money. West Ham and Middlesbrough are looking at mid table at best whilst the rest are relegation candidates. Get on Harry.

1/2pt White Hart Lane to witness the most Premier league goals 9/1 Boylesports

The one thing that is certain about Spurs this season is that there will be goals, oh yes, there will be goals. Eighty goals were scored at White Hart Lane lane last season, twenty four more than any other ground. Juande Ramos teams play very attacking open football and I see no reason why a similar tally should not be racked up this season. They have a better goalkeeper this year but two very attack minded full backs and two very injury prone centre backs. I can't understand how Old Trafford can be favourite considering Man Utd only conceded seven goals at home last season? The Lane should be a strong favourite at about half the price.

1/2 pt Liverpool to win the Carling cup 10/1 Skybet

Ok, not strictly a Premiership bet but I'm lumping it in this section regardless. Liverpool now have a very large squad after investing heavily in young players over the last two seasons. The reserve team won the league last season and many of these players will make up Liverpool's Carling cup team in the earlier rounds. Nemeth, Spearing, Darby and Pacheco have all been heavily involved in pre season friendlies and are on the verge of the first team. Just about every top club plays a weakened side in the earlier rounds these days but Liverpool's should prove stronger than most. 10/1 is too big for a Liverpool side who have a very good record in this competition winning it a record seven times. The general price is 7/1 and 10/1 is a bit of value.

Championship

By far the toughest league in the country to predict.
Pretty much everyone is capable of beating everyone
else on their day and last years promoted trio of WBA,
Stoke and Hull lost thirty three games between them.
Birmingham are the favourites after managing to keep
hold of most of their best players such as Maik
Taylor, Larsson and McFadden. They have added to their
forwards in the shape of Kevin Phillips and Marcus
Bent as well as bringing in Lee Carsley from Everton
whose experience should prove invaluable. It might
take a bit of time to adjust to the Championship but
come the end of the season they should be there or
thereabouts.

Queens Park Rangers are a side I tipped towards the
end of last season to do well this year. They have
wealthy owners and have started making some decent
signings. The return of crowd favourite Lee Cook will
be a popular move and Kaspars Gorkss, Blackpool's best
player last year, is another decent signing. A sign of
the direction the club is heading in is the loan
signing of Real Madrid starlet Daniel Parejo who is
very highly rated. However, Parejo will take some
getting used to the physical nature of English
football and I will be interested to see how he copes.
QPR have also retained talented players from last
season such as Akos Buzsaky and Patrick Agyemang and
added a couple of Italians on loan too. More players
are likely to arrive before the transfer window shuts
but I think it could take some time for the team to
gel together. There are question marks about Iain
Dowie's appointment as manager and it is even rumoured
that should he get Rangers promoted, he will be
immediately sacked in favour of a big name manager for
the Premiership. QPR should have every chance of being
promoted but they are too short at 8/1 to back for the
title in such a competitive league.

In the last ten years only one in five teams relegated
from the Premiership have bounced straight back up at
the first attempt. They are always amongst the
favourites in the betting but it is quite a shock
adjusting to life in the Championship. Holding on to
your main players always proves to be the toughest
task but it is one Reading seem to be succeeding at.
Dave Kitson has stayed in the Premiership, moving to
Stoke, whilst Nicky Shorey is reportedly on the verge
of joining Portsmouth. Apart from that though, most of
the squad remains intact. Harper, Doyle and Lita are
still there as is Stephen Hunt who is joined by his
brother Noel after signing from Dundee Utd. Celtic
were supposedly looking at signing Noel before Reading
signed him and he should do well in the Championship.
In Steve Coppell Reading have a manager who has won
the Championship before, breaking records in the
process, so he will be well aware of what is expected.
Derby on the other hand have been completely rebuilt
under Paul Jewell and the new team will again need
time to gel. A strike force of Hulse and Ellington
should do well at this level and a midfield of
Pearson, Savage, Commons and Giles Barnes also has a
lot of potential. It might take them a while to get
going but Derby should be in the hunt for a play off
place come May.

Other contenders for promotion include Sheffield Utd,
Wolves, Crystal Palace and Ipswich. Sheffield Utd
finished the season in fine form winning eight of
their last twelve games and their forwards Beattie,
Sharpe and Henderson will again be a threat. Wolves
have a very young squad that may lack the experience
necessary to challenge outright, but with last years
top scorer Ebanks-Blake in the side as well as Michael
Kightly they will be quietly confident. Crystal Palace
also have a very young squad but they are an extremely
talented bunch, in particular Victor Moses and Sean
Scannell. However, they lost John Bostock on the cheap
and Ben Watson also looks like leaving for a cut price
fee. Another play off place may not be beyond them
with Warnock in charge from day one this time round.
Ipswich are another team with aspirations of promotion
and Boss Jim Magilton is highly respected. They have
been linked with the likes of Kevin Nugent and Ivan
Campo in recent weeks and have already brought Richard
Wright back to Portman road and bolstered their
forward line with Kevin Lisbie. They could be set for
a decent season.

Last seasons surprise package Bristol City are going
to struggle to replicate their achievements this year.
They won a lot of games by narrow margins last year
but should be boosted by the signing of Nicky Maynard
from Crewe. Maynard missed a lot of last season with a
serious injury but quickly made up for lost time in
the second half of the season. It will be interesting
to see if he can score goals at a higher level. I
don't think Charlton are going to be a factor this
season as they have lost quite a few players and
brought very few in, finances appear to be tight.
Likewise with Watford who finished the season awfully,
winning just once in fourteen matches before being
hammered 6-1 on aggregate by Hull in the play offs.

Newly promoted Notts Forest and Swansea could both do
well and I think they will stay up comfortably. Forest
have brought in strikers Andy Cole and Robert Earnshaw
to help Nathan Tyson and Earnshaw in particular could
prove a fantastic signing. The Championship is
Earnshaw's level and he managed twenty seven goals in
forty one starts for Norwich as well as eighty five in
one hundred and forty one starts for Cardiff. A poor
spell in a poor Derby side in which he wasn't given
much of a chance shouldn't cloud your judgement.

At the other end of the table the main candidates for
relegation are Southampton, Sheffield Wednesday,
Barnsley and Blackpool. Southampton are allegedly
losing £1million a month and have trimmed their squad
considerably. Administration and a points deduction is
a real possibility making 5/1 a tempting price to back
the saints for the drop. The board made a strange
decision to bring in unheard of Jan Poortvliet and
Mark Wotte from Holland. Wotte has admitted that it
could take "months" for players to learn a new style
of play. Any significant injury problems could see
Southampton struggle badly and it is crucial that they
keep Stern John fit. Sheffield Wednesday finished just
three points from safety last season and have brought
in James O'Connor from Burnley and Jimmy Smith from
Chelsea. Whilst not bad signings, Wednesday need to
strengthen a lot more if they are to stay in the
division. Barnsley also finished just three points
above safety but did enjoy an exciting cup run last
season. Iain Hume has been brought in from Leicester
but further reinforcements are also needed. Blackpool
look to be facing another hard season after losing
three of their best players last year. Kaspars Gorkss,
Wes Hoolahan and Kiegan Parker have all departed
making them favourites for the drop. Simon Grayson has
replaced them with several new signings such as
Jermaine Wright, Rehmann and Nardiello from QPR and
Adam Hamill on loan from Liverpool but whether the new
boys can give them the required quality is debatable.

Summary and Recommended bets:

It is very difficult to recommend an outright bet in
such a tight league. Birmingham are rightly favourites
but are too short for my liking. There are several
other contenders and it really is a bit of a lottery.
I am recommending two bets in the Championship,
Southampton to be relegated and Earnshaw as an each
way bet for top scorer. Southampton have a much
reduced playing pool and a new dutch management team
which could prove a real gamble. Their perilous
financial condition also means that a points deduction
at some point in the season could also be a factor.
Earnshaw on the other hand has scored goals at this
level before. With promising Liverpool youngster Paul
Anderson on a season long loan at Forest, he could
well provide plenty of ammunition for Earnshaw.

1pt Southampton to be relegated 5/1 Skybet or 9/2 B365
and Coral

1/4pt each way Earnshaw to be top goalscorer 25/1
Ladbrokes and Coral

League One

League one was dominated by Swansea last season but I
don't think there is anyone at that level this time
around. Leeds are strong favourites but too short to
back at 3/1. They have a promising young Boss in Gary
McAllister and a twenty goal a season striker in
Jermaine Beckford. Luciano Becchio has also joined
after scoring twenty four goals in the Spanish second
division last season. He is only twenty four but has
had spells at Barcelona, Mallorca and Boca juniors
already, so it will be interesting to see what impact
he has. Andy Robinson has opted to stay in League one
to join Leeds rather than play Championship football
with Swansea. Robinson was an important part of
Swansea's promotion push last season and is a
fantastic signing for Leeds. Johnny Howson, David
Prutton and Jonathan Douglas are all useful players at
this level too and it's hard to see Leeds not being
there or thereabouts come May.

Relegated Leicester are second favourites for the
title but there's no way I could back them at 5/1.
Nigel Pearson is incredibly the sixth manager under
Milan Mandaric in just eighteen months, a fact that
goes a long way in explaining how Leicester ended up
in League One. Leicester have retained plenty of
decent players and added Llyod Dyer from Mk Dons but
there will be a period of adjustment and I am not
convinced Nigel Pearson is the best person for the
job. They have the players to bounce straight back but
it wont be as easy as the odds suggest.

Peterborough and Mk dons ran away with league two last
season but I am a little surprised they are so short
in the betting, at 10/1 and 14/1 respectively.
Peterborugh have done well to hang on to Aaron Mclean
but apart form that they have only added Wycombe's
Sergio Torres. New signings may be on the way before
the transfer window closes but at the moment I don't
think they are good enough to challenge for the
league. Mk Dons have lost Paul Ince and whilst Roberto
Di Matteo is a high profile replacement, he is an
unproven manager. Captain Keith Andrews is also
subject to interest from bigger clubs and it would be
a big blow if they lost him. Like Peterborough Mk Dons
have added very little to the squad since winning
promotion and it is a big ask for the same squad to
challenge again at a higher level.

Huddersfield have been the subject of an ante post
gamble in recent weeks after adding some talented
players to their squad. Kiegan Parker from Blackpool,
Andy Butler from Scunthorpe and Gary Roberts from
Ipswich were all playing Championship football last
season and should improve a team that wasn't far off
last season. Cut priced season tickets have resulted
in sales going past the 15,000 mark, so they should
have considerable home advantage too. 16/1 is still
available and better value than the teams mentioned
above. Carlisle are another side who could be a touch
of value at 18/1 with Boylesports. The Cumbrians
finished level on points with Doncaster and just two
points behind Nottingham forest so it is a little
surprising that they are so big. However, the sale of
highly rated goalkeeper Kieran Westwood to Coventry
and striker Joe Garner to Nottingham Forest has
weakened the squad. Michael Bridges has been brought
back to the club on loan and if he can rediscover the
form he showed in a previous spell at the club then
Garner's loss may not be so sore. Top scorer Danny
Graham remains at the club too and his fifteen goals
was the third best tally in the league last season. It
is strange therefore that you can back him at 33/1
each way with Skybet to repeat the feat. Graham is
only twenty three and still improving after coming
through Middlesbrough's youth system. If Leeds'
Jermaine Beckford were to be sold in January his
chances would be even better. Carlisle had the best
home record in the division last season, but will have
to improve on their away form which resulted in just
six away wins last year.

Of the remaining challengers, Colchester and Brighton
have the best chances of promotion but probably
through the play offs. Colchester have kept most of
their squad intact and in Dean Hammond, Johnnie
Jackson and Mark Yeats, have players well capable of
performing at this level. Steven Gillespie has also
been signed from Cheltenham and should be a decent
replacement for the departed Kevin Lisbie. Brighton
have a good manager in Micky Adams and he has added
several decent players in Hawkins, Virgo (who was a
big hit at the club first time around) and Livermore
to the squad. They should help the club build on a
promising finish to last season. The betting suggest
that Tranmere and Southend also have chances but
neither have strengthened from last season.

At the bottom of the table, Cheltenham, Hereford,
Stockport, Yeovil, Crewe and Walsall are most at risk
of relegation. Crewe are possibly best equipped to
avoid the drop despite losing star player Nicky
Maynard to Bristol City. The £2million plus fee will
provide funds to strengthen other areas and Anthony
Eldings arrival from Leeds should soften the blow.
Aldershot's Joel Grant is another decent signing and
if they can bring in two or three players with the
Maynard money then they might be ok. Yeovil reached
the play offs two seasons ago but paid for it by
attracting interest to their best players. An
Eighteenth place finish just four points above the
drop was the result last year. Yeovil managed just
thirty six goals in forty six games last year which
was the lowest in the division by a long way.
Goalkeeper Steve Mildenhall has since departed which
is also a major blow. Had it not been for points
deductions for Luton and Bournemouth, Yeovil would
have gone down last year and they may not be able to
avoid that fate this time around. Promoted Stockport
have lost leading scorer Liam Dickinson to Derby and
have brought in Peter Thompson from Lingfield as his
replacement. Thompson will need to hit the ground
running if he is to score the goals to keep them up.
They also have a promising talent in Tommy Rowe who is
tipped for the Premiership. Walsall fans may be
regretting not giving Richard Money their backing last
season as they look set to struggle this year.
Assistant Jimmy Mullen has taken over but he does not
have the best pedigree and Walsall have very little
money to spend. Michael Ricketts has been brought back
to the club to solve a goalscoring problem, but
Ricketts best days are behind him and things look grim
for a very average looking Walsall
side.

Cheltenham are favourites in the betting to be
relegated after losing top scorer Steven Gillespie.
They narrowly avoided relegation on the final day last
season and are going to struggle to replace
Gillespie's goals. Just three away wins last season
was a major problem as was having the second lowest
goals tally in the league. I cant see where the goals
are coming from this year and Keith Downing has a
massive job on his hands. Whilst Cheltenham look like
strong relegation candidates, newly promoted Hereford
look far worse off in my opinion. Playing non league
football three seasons ago, Hereford have been
promoted twice in three seasons but have not
strengthened the playing staff nearly enough. Last
season's promotion came as quite a surprise and was
mainly achieved as a result of several shrewd loan
signings from the higher divisions. Those players have
now gone back to their clubs leaving a very limited
pool of players. The Bulls badly need to bring in a
goalscorer and yesterday's loan signing of Moses
Ashikodi from Watford suggests Turner will try and
emulate last seasons transfer policy. I think it is a
very risky tactic as players can be recalled by their
parent club at any time. Loan signings generally tend
to be young players looking for first team experience
so they will not be ideal for a relegation battle
either.

Summary and Recommendations:

I will be surprised if Leeds are not promoted this
year but they are too short to back. Leicester should
eventually get their act together but again are poor
value. Huddersfield and Carlisle probably rate as
decent outside bets but new boys Peterborough and Mk
Dons will require further strengthening. Carlisle's
Danny Graham is more than capable of equalling last
seasons tally of fifteen and is too big at 33/1 with
Skybet. If you miss the price then take the 25/1
available with Corals, Hills and Blue Square. The Tote
and B365 are just 14/1 which is far closer the mark.
Hereford should be favourites for the drop in my
opinion and are desperately short of quality. 9/4 is
too big and I expect an immediate return to league
two.

1pt Hereford to be relegated 9/4 B365 and Centrebet or
21/10 with the Tote.

1/4pt each way Danny Graham top goalscorer 33/1 Skybet
or 25/1 Hills, Coral and Blue square.

League Two

A tricky league from an ante post betting point of
view. The relegation market is not currently being
offered by most firms as Luton have been given a
thirty point deduction for being in administration.
Rotherham and Bournemouth face similar penalties
making the market a mine field to bet on. The two
relegated teams this year will almost certainly go
down with points deductions so the relegation market
is best swerved. Top goalscorer is also a tricky
market to get involved in at this level. Most clubs in
League Two operate on shoe string budgets and any
player who does well in the first half of the season,
could well move on in January. This makes the top
goalscorer market a bit of a lottery as if your player
does too well he might move up a league and ruin your
bet. Therefore the only market really worth
concentrating on is outright winner and promotion.

Shrewsbury have been the subject of quite a gamble
this summer. They have been backed in from 20/1 to 7/1
favourites after several decent signings. Grant Holt
has arrived for a club record fee from Nottingham
Forest, Paul Walker has signed form Bristol Rovers,
Shane Cansdell-Sherriff from Tranmere and Paul Murray
from Gretna. In Paul Simpson they have a manager who
has won this league before with Carlisle. It will be
their second season in a nice new stadium too, so they
have had a settling in period. So plenty of positives
about Shrewsbury and I can see why they've been
backed, but at 7/1 they are far too short now. It must
be remembered that they only managed fifty points last
season, finishing eighteenth just five places above
the drop. They have brought in some good players but
it is going to take a huge improvement for them to win
the league.

I think Bradford are in a far stronger position than
last year and are my tip for League Two. Stuart McCall
has had a season to adjust to life in the basement
division and has had a clear out of dead wood in the
summer. McCall has made several shrewd signings
including Michael Boulding who managed twenty one
goals for relegated Mansfield last year. He should be
well capable of reaching a similar target in a far
better team this year. Having just joined in the
summer he is unlikely to move again this season and I
wouldn't put anyone off backing him at 16/1 for top
scorer. He should form a good partnership with Peter
Thorne. Paul Arnison, who achieved promotion with
Carlisle two seasons ago, has dropped back down a
division and is another good signing. Paul McLaren
from Tranmere and Chris Brandon from Huddersfield have
also dropped down from league one as McCall puts
together a very capable looking squad. Bradford
averaged over 13000 through the gate last season which
is some way above the leagues average of 4000. A
promotion challenge could be rewarded by even bigger
crowds still, creating considerable home advantage.

Darlington and Rochdale are next in the betting after
successfully reaching the play offs last season. Darlo
have signed three players from promoted Stockport in
Adam Proudlock, David Poole and Adam Griffin. These
three will make good additions but the loss of young
goalkeeper David Stockdale to Fulham is a big blow.
Stockdale was the main reason behind Darlington's
fantastic defensive record and he will be difficult to
replace. Manager Dave Penney has a good pedigree after
previous success with Doncaster and he has cleared out
those deemed not good enough over the summer. Another
play off place is on the cards. Rochdale also look set
to challenge for the play offs again but will have to
do so without Dave Perkins who has been snapped up by
Colchester. He has been replaced by Clark Keltie from
Darlington and Ciaran Toner from Grimsby who should
both make good signings. A poor playing surface at
Spotland could be a big handicap in the winter months
however.

Wycombe were the other side to make the play offs last
season but manager Paul Lambert has since departed and
new boss Peter Taylor has had a bit of a clear out
over the summer. Sergio Torres has moved on and
Taylor's seven new signings will need time to settle
in. It will be interesting to see how things pan out
at Wycombe but they do not look like challengers just
yet. Chesterfield just missed out on promotion last
season and will be hoping Jack Lester's goals can get
them there this time around. Darren Currie has come in
and should do well at this level. Manager Lee
Richardson is also well thought of.

Of the relegated teams from league one last season,
Gillingham look best equipped to bounce straight back.
Part of their problem in League one was that Stimson
brought in too many players from non league and the
gap proved too big to bridge. However, the best
players from the Blue Square Premier often do very
well in League two and the Gills should be capable of
mounting a challenge. Poor old Luton have no chance
with a huge thirty point penalty and will be dropping
out of the league altogether if they cant get some
back on appeal. Former captain Kevin Nicholls has
snubbed offers from bigger clubs to resign however and
with the pressure off, Luton could perform well.
Bournemouth are also still struggling financially and
could well face another points penalty. Sam Vokes has
departed for Wolves leaving them hoping for mid table
safety whilst they try and get their house in order.

I don't think anyone else is really equipped to
challenge in league two and the winner should come
from the above mentioned teams. Aldershot were
promoted with over one hundred points and should
finish in the top half, but they have lost star player
Joel Grant to Crewe and will need a season to adjust
to league football.

Summary and Recommendations:

Bradford and Shrewsbury look like the teams to watch
this year. Both have made shrewd signings and have
good managers. However, I think Bradford are in a
stronger position and are worth support at 9/1.

1/2pt Bradford to win league two 9/1
Stanjames/Betdirect, Ladbrokes, Sportingbet and
Centrebet.

Spanish ante post bet:

1/2pt Sergio Aguero to be top La Liga goalscorer 12/1 Skybet and B365

Aguero emerged from the shadow of Fernando Torres last season to fire Atletico Madrid into the Champions league group stages for the first time in eleven years. He arrived at Atletico with a huge reputation a couple of seasons ago after becoming the youngest ever player to play in the Argentine first division aged just fifteen. The record had previously been held by a certain Diego Maradonna and Aguero's lack of height and silky skills have resulted in comparisons being drawn between the two. Aguero's nineteen goals last season was the third highest tally in La Liga and with another years experience under his belt he has every chance of topping the charts this season. Last years top scorer Guiza has departed to play in Turkey whilst there are plenty of negatives surrounding his main challengers. Barcelona quartet Henry, Etoo, Messi and Bojan are likely to share a lot of goals out between them. At Real Madrid Van Nistelrooy is now 32 and has been hampered by several injuries in recent seasons whilst Raul is in a similar position. Sevilla pair Fabiano and Kanoute are outside threats but the main danger is Valencia's David Villa. He looks set to stay at the Mestalla for another season but with all the controversy at the club over finances, it is hard to say how he will get on this year. Off the field problems could be a big distraction for Valencia. Aguero was named the second best player in La Liga last season by Spanish newspaper Marca and he is a value price to become top scorer this time out. Atletico play very attacking football and have a lot of creativity in the side too, so this should also aid the Argentine wonderkid.

Ante post update: Sept 2008

Harry Redknapp to be top English manager (Advised price of 13/8 - current best price no longer available)

Pompey couldn't have asked for a more difficult start then Chelsea and Man Utd in their first two games. However, a 3-0 victory at Goodison at the weekend showed what they are capable of and I am confident Portsmouth will have a good season.

White Hart Lane to be the ground where the most Premier League goals are scored (Advised price of 9/1 - current best price no longer available)

Only one home game played for Spurs so far but three goals were scored and they are likely to be the first of many.

Liverpool to win the Carling cup (Advised price of 10/1 - current best price 13/2)

Rafa Benitez's men have yet to kick a ball in the competition yet they are already as short as 13/2 after a very favourable home draw to Crewe. We are on at a nice price, whatever happens.

Southampton to be relegated (Advised price of 5/1 - current best price 11/4)

Four games in and Southampton are already down at the wrong end of the table. Saturday's home defeat to fellow relegation candidates Blackpool shows how much the Saints are likely to struggle this year.

Robert Earnshaw to be top Championship goalscorer (Advised price of 25/1 - current best price 20/1)

Earnshaw is off the mark with a goal against Watford and has also scored three times in the Carling cup. Definitely in with a chance.

Hereford to be relegated (Advised price of 9/4 - current best price 11/10)

Bounced back from a 6-1 hammering by Bristol Rovers last week to record their first win against Crewe at the weekend. However, the Bulls are still in the drop zone and have failed to bring in the required quality to keep them up, I'm surprised they are still odds against.

Danny Graham to be top League one scorer (Advised price of 33/1 - current best price 9/1)

Leading the way already as joint top scorer with five, Graham has got every chance after this weekend's hat trick. 33/1 looks Huge!

Bradford to win League two (Advised price of 9/1 - current best price 13/2)

Three straight wins before losing at Aldershot this weekend. I think the weekend result was just a blip and they are just one point of the top still. They have every chance.

Sergio Aguero to be top scorer in La Liga (Advised price of 12/1 - current best price 10/1)

Aguero got off to a good start on Saturday scoring in his first game. His cause is helped by a very attacking Atletico side and he should be there or thereabouts.